Question of the Week, 4.4.2011
The prediction of time, location, and magnitude of earthquakes is of great interest due to their potential destructiveness. Although the physical processes that cause earthquakes are relatively well understood and regions of the world where earthquakes are likely to happen are known, there is currently no reliable way to predict when an event will happen. Furthermore, it is not possible to forecast hypocenter and magnitude within a reasonable margin of error. The association of impeding earthquakes to several precursor phenomena such as seismicity patterns, crustal movements, ground water level, and radon gas emissions is a topic of ongoing research, however, all these approaches remain far from routine application.
Read more: The Prediction Puzzle, C. H. Scholz, Science 327, 1082 (2010).
Thomas Jagau